Corn and Bean Prices Push to New Weekly Highs

Prices quietly ground higher today with corn and beans testing the upper end of the recent range despite a lack of bullish news and further moves by China to secure more beans from Brazil, bean prices were the leader in the gainers. Other news was limited other than the drama in Washington that a vote in the House of Representatives tonight that will immediately re-open the government. The Huse Democrats that are against giving in promised to fight the passage until the end, but for now, it appears the Republicans have enough cross-over votes to pass the funding bill. An official re-opening of the government and then Friday’s USDA report will be the big news heading into the weekend.

News and Notes:

• The US and SA weather forecasts were unchanged today and remain non-threatening with recent US rains helping raise water levels in the major shipping rivers. The dryness in Argentina is great for Argentina planting and quick early development after recent rains while the massive crop area of Brazil has no problems in any major growing region. If SA does not become threatening int eh next 3-5 weeks, it gets very hard to paint a bullish picture for the first half of 2026.
• The December daily corn chart is on Page 2 and shows the re-test of the recent highs after a 10-cent rally since Tuesday’s lows on technical buying after a bounce from the 20-DMA (blue line) with today’s highs stopping at the 200-DMA (red). The volume and news are not bullish enough to think prices will bust through overhead resistance at the 200-DMA without some help in the Friday USDA report. The January bean chart looks similar to this corn chart, but the funds are long beans while still short corn. The 45-cent rally in corn since August and the $1.05 bean rally in beans since the December 20^thlows was well timed for what needed to be sold off the combine. Friday’s report decides the how much longer these rallies could last.
• While China has not signed the US trade agreement and does not appear to be buying US cash beans, Chinese owned grain buyer COFCO signed deals with the major world commercial exporters to buy $10 billion worth of Brazilian soy products. These developments have driven US port bean basis 25-30 cents lower while Jan beans have rallied a like amount during that time. It is hard to tell exactly what is going on in price discovery in Chicago since falling basis rarely motivates a rally.
• Cattle continue to trade violently on both sides with no end to the uncertainty and volatility in sight as this week’s cash trade and boxed beef prices have rallied from last week to help the rally. THE technical outlook for both live and feeders has both charts just under the 20 and 100-DMAs which may act as short-term resistance if cash holds in the $232-$234 range this week, but any overhead push through that resistance will open up another $12-$15 of overhead potential. All bullish analysis stands independent of any potential negative texts from President Trump.
• Although the equity indexes were mixed today with the NASDAQ lower, the DOW rallied strongly for the 4^thstraight day and closed over 48,000 for the first time today. All indexes are making or just under all-time highs, so equity traders continue to see an optimistic landscape into early 2026.

The markets are confusing at times when they seem to be trading in the opposite direction of the news, but that is nothing new and usually only lasts a few days before a more logical pattern develops. Talking about a grand plan before we know Friday’s yield is largely a waste of time, but rallies into and after the release of the report need to sold because China’s actions in deepening their trade relationship with Brazil, will not allow for the US to return as China’s major grain and soy supplier. Increasing world production competition, flat world demand and increasing trade tension with the world’s largest end users are not the best landscape to build a long-term bullish argument without a major intervention by Mother Nature in 2026.