November 7 Comment

The week ended with mixed trade as the grains moved lower but the bean complex bounced back to regain Thursday’s losses and finish just fractionally changed for the week. Since the announcement of the trade deal with China, news has been scarce but with the USDA going back to work and expected to release the November stocks and yield update on Friday the 14^th, the long-awaited report will help clarify just how much yield loss occurred from the late season drought and the widespread rush issues in corn. Although the USA is back at work, there was no progress made on an entire US government re-opening agreement over the weekend.

News and Notes:

• Winter arrived in the Midwest this weekend with rain slowing the last part of harvest in the ECB. SA remains ideal with bean planting starting in Argentina under “optimal” conditions based on field reports. There are no world weather problems to help the bulls cause.
• The daily 2025 and 2026 corn and bean charts are on Page 2 and show the similarities and some important differences between the different crop year charts. Both bean charts lost momentum on Thursday but with Nov ’26 beans losing a few cents last week, it is clear the trade deal with China is a bigger new crop issue. Jan beans have the most downside to technical support and if Chinese purchases are not confirmed early next week, there is a 40-50 cent air pocket with little resistance that would be targeted. The corn charts are mirrors of each other as the Chinese trade deal has no corn purchases. Corn direction will be decided in the short-term by Friday’s USDA yield estimate and then SA weather into late December.
• An interesting and troubling number from China last week was they imported 350 MBU of beans (record and up 17.2% YOY) with none of them from the US. China has shown they do not need US beans when Brazil produces a crop 6 BBU plus.
• The Cattle on Feed report will not be released for another few weeks, but President Trump is again taking aim at the high price of beef and targeting the meat packers calling their monopolistic practices the problem for the high beef prices. Cattle prices will remain extremely volatile, but the momentum is clearly favoring the bears after the $30 loss over the last month.
• Weekly Changes: Corn-4 1/4 (Dec ‘25), unchanged (Dec ‘26), Beans +1 3/4 (Jan ‘26), -3 3/4 (Nov ‘26), Wheat -4 (July ’26), Crude -123, Diesel +835, Dow -637, US Dollar -159, Cattle -833, Feeder Cattle -1244, Hogs -188, Cotton -192, Milk -19 (17.20).

The excitement of the Chinese trade deal breakthrough is fading as a lack of any cash sales reports by COFCO or from the major US exporters. Without confirmation, the market will start to take back gains nearly as fast as they appeared and Friday’s USDA yield report is also an area of concern as the private estimates do not indicate the USDA is going to shock the markets with yields below 183 and 53. Anything other than just a short-term bounce will take a yield below 182 and 51.5 as cash markets are indicating yields smaller than the August 188 and 54, but not below 180 and 51 as many social media reports are trying to promote. Opening calls are little changed to slightly lower as no significant news came out this weekend on either the government re-opening or specific trade details with China. Have a great Sunday night.