August 12th USDA Report Overview

Strategic Trading Advisors

USDA August Crop Report

Overview

August 12, 2026

Current Trade:        

Corn:   15 higher                   Dec futures: $4.75     

Beans:  8 to 9 higher            Nov futures: $11.78

Wheat: 20 to 13 higher         Sep futures: $6.34

First Glance:

Corn              

2026 US Corn Yield:  180.7 BPA                 (182.4 BPA Estimate)

2026 US Total Production:  16.013 BBU    (15.934 BBU Estimate)

25/26 US Corn Stocks:  1.945 BBU             (1.999 BBU Estimate)

26/27 US Corn Stocks:  1.653 BBU             (1.725 BBU Estimate)

26/27 World Corn Stocks:  274.66 MMT     (273.77 MMT)

• The USDA did not take the legs out from under the market as they lowered the US yield to 180.7 bu/acre. Despite raising the total production from last month they lowered US ending stocks with higher exports and lower beginning stocks. The ending stocks to use estimate is down to 10.1%. With some time still remaining to get this crop in the bin weather will still play a role with the western growing states, North Dakota down to Texas, having expected yields much lower than 2025.

Beans             

2026 US Bean Yield:  52.7 BPA                   (52.9 BPA Estimate)

2026 US Total Production:  4.519               (4.472 BBU Estimate)

25/26 US Bean Stocks:  325 MBU               (321 MBU Estimate)

26/27 US Bean Stocks:  320 BBU              (304 BBU Estimate)

26/27 World Bean Stocks:  124.21 MMT   (124.24 MMT Estimate)

• The bean numbers were not as bullish as corn but the market still responded well. A 52.7 bu/acre yield with higher harvested acres were the two main numbers with bean ending stocks being raised across the board. The bean crop is far from finished with pod fill still on the horizon with timely rains needed. Beans benefited more from the general market move higher as the higher acreage leads to more production even with lower yields.

Wheat            

2026 US Wheat Production:  1.531             (1.525 BBU Estimate)

26/27 US Wheat Stocks:  717 MMT             (715 MMT Estimate)

26/27 World Wheat Stocks:  273.25 MMT  (271.77 MMT Estimate)

• The wheat numbers were not changed much from last month and world ending stocks were raised modestly. The woes of the US wheat crop have been well documented to this point and the continued Black Sea disruptions and conflict will be watched. 

Overview:

The trade responded well to the report with corn, beans and wheat all positive for the day. Lower US yields were expected as crop conditions have been deteriorating due to lack of rain in some areas mixed with long periods of heat across much of the US. This will be the only report of the day.