Grain Market Meltdown Deepens as Corn Hits New 2026 Lows

An ugly end to a really ugly week saw prices continue lower with corn making new lows for 2026 and put new crop corn, beans, and wheat now 60-cents, 75-cents and $1.08 below the May highs. The collapse has not been pushed by one event, but several, as a lack of Chinese buying since the trade meeting, no US weather issues and near record long speculative fund positions that were liquidated. The early June liquidation is earlier than the normal seasonal swoon, and the aggressiveness of the losses has also been a surprise despite three important months ahead for the US crop.

News and Notes:

- Weekend rains for most of eh Midwest will continue to keep the weather bulls on the ropes as the US forecasts into late June continue to be non-threatening with a cooler trend. World weather is largely non-threatening with some regional dryness in India and Australia as the Super El Nino builds which historically has created problems for the Southern Hemisphere.

- The daily corn, bean, and wheat charts on Page 2 look terrible as this week’s vicious freefall took no prisoners on the way down. Dec corn set a new 2026 low, while beans and wheat fell through all major moving average support except the 200-DMA. The funds are still long 200-250 MBU of corn and beans but have pushed their net short position in wheat out to 380 MBU’s. The markets are extremely oversold, but the bulls lack a catalyst to quickly reverse the damage caused last week. The crude oil chart remains choppy and neutral as the cease fire with Iran remains in place but the negotiations for reopening the Straits have been unproductive for over a month.

- A potential silver lining in the price declines is that China now may have the green light to follow through on US purchases at much lower prices. If China follows through on beginning their promises of 25 MMT beans and 10 MMT of corn, the markets could quickly find some support and set up an unusual non-weather summer rally. Morning flash sales reports from the USDA will be key to finding a tradable bottom.

- Cattle futures had another wild week with news of the first US case of screwworm in Texas which saw feeders to a limit up move on Thursday with additional gains on Friday. While cash cattle prices have consolidated between $250 to $260. The seasonal problem for cattle is that summer heat allows for an easier spread of the screwworm virus through migratory birds. If more infections are found in the US but the US consumer continues their strong demand, cattle could easily challenge the late April all-time highs of $256.63, as it is only $7 above Friday’s close.

- Weekly Changes: Corn – 29 1/4 (July ‘26), - 29 (Dec ‘26), Beans – 65 1/4 (July ‘26), - 52 1/2 (Nov ‘26), Wheat – 30 1/2 (July ’26), Crude + 318, Diesel + 1006, Dow - 141, US Dollar + 1199, Cattle + 188, Feeder Cattle + 547, Hogs - 155, Cotton  -211, Milk - 78 (16.13).

Another weekend with no breakthroughs with Iran or reopening the Straits and last week’s terrible trade and close should force prices to open slightly lower. The collapse has been dizzying and put the markets in positions that few operations are profitable with normal yields. Chinese demand is mandatory to stop the bleeding. Have a great Sunday.