Quiet Grains, Loud Macro: GDP Strength and Argentina Heat Keep Traders on Edge

Another slow day of trade for corn and beans as limited news caused a drifting tw0-sided trade that ended with mixed closes. Wheat was higher on technical buying when prices fell to support, but fundamental news was lacking behind the bounce. Other news was financially related with US GDP surging in the 4^thquarter which sparked significant rallies in the world equity and metals markets. A strong US economy that can keep inflation in check would be helpful for worldwide raw material demand as the US Dollae continues to weaken on concerns of the choking amount of the US national debt. The week will end with the delayed weekly export report and the weather bulls watching the weekend forecasts for any continuation of the dry and hot pattern for eastern Argentina.

News and Notes:

• Some concern is developing. for the early February dry pattern for E Argentina as building heat is beginning to stress their corn. Other SA weather news is non-threatening. The US will see a massive winter storm from E Texas to Maine drop heavy snow and ice over the weekend with brutal cold to follow early next week.
• The daily November bean chart is on Page 2 and shows the improving technical pattern as prices have rallied through the 200 (black line) and 20 (light blue) this week to show some strength. The funds are holding a modest short position, but it is hard to imagine why the mini-rally could go much further in the face of Brazil’s expanding bean harvest and their record yield. Any rally to the top end of moving average resistance at $10.91 ¾ will hit the stand Sales Target at $10.90, but I might pull the trigger a little earlier to not miss the chance.
• The weekly ethanol grind fell from the previous week but was still the largest weekly total for mid-January. Oil and gas prices fell on a sharp build in stocks and with the news that the emergency funding bill working in Washington dropped the year-round E-15 amendment, which will set back any movement on E-15 later in 2026. The EPA is still expected to release their updated mandates in the next 6-weeks, so it will be interesting to see how corn and bean oil prices react to the final numbers.
• Today’s gross domestic product report showed a stronger 4^thquarter growth rate at 5.3% with inflation numbers remaining in check at 2.8%. Continued economic strength in 2026 and rising world equity markets will help all of our trade partners, which should help increase demand.
• Thanks to Chip Flory and his team at AgriTalk for including me in Tuesday’s broadcast. Here is the link if you did not hear it live.

It is just a slow news cycle for our markets with no major world crop concerns and no major USDA updates coming out until late February. The weather patterns have been consistent during the weak La Nina cycle and nothing surprising is coming out of Washington or Brazil’s early harvest. With China finished with their bean purchases, both summer row crop markets are likely to drift in post-USDA report ranges until something more substantial can force a breakout or breakdown.