- Corn 7 to 9 lower
- Soybeans 25 to 27 lower
- Wheat 7 to 9 lower
- Basis Flat
- Live Cattle 268 higher (249.20)
- Dow Jones 820 higher (51,614)
- Crude Oil 328 lower (92.76)
- Feeder Cattle 950 higher (352.20)
The trap door is falling out from under the corn, bean and wheat markets this morning as the funds accelerated their chart-based selling. The factors of lower crude oil, poor demand and a great US weather forecast for the next 2-weeks have forced the funds to the exits. It is an ugly week that could turn uglier if the funds abandon more of their length.
News and Notes:
- US weather has added insult to injury in this week’s collapse. With no threats and normal rain chances for most of the Corn Belt, the trade is adding bushels to yield and taking out premium.
- The December corn and November bean daily charts are below and look terrible. Dec corn fell through all technical support on Tuesday while Nov beans have seen a nasty break over the last three days. Corn prices are in freefall while beans did go to the 50-DMA which has held so far this morning. The funds are still long 500-600 MBU which continues to concern me.
- Weekly exports were all below last week and pretty poor in general. China remains quiet on starting trade deal purchases, but they are buying corn and beans from Brazil and Argentina.
- The first case of Mexican screwworm was reported in south Texas this morning. Cattle futures collapsed on the open but have rebounded to large gains. Feeder cattle have traded in a $15 range from low to high.
There is not much to say besides what went up is now coming down. The excitement of the expanded trade deal with China and worries about the cool and wet start to the growing season have faded quickly. Friday’s will determine if this is just the first step or just a break in the middle of the season. This will be today’s only comment.
Sales Targets
Corn
Beans
Wheat
- 2025 Crop Finished Finished Finished
- 100% Sold at $4.48 Avg 100% Sold at $10.67 100% Sold at $6.24 Avg
- 2026 Crop On Hold - Dec ‘26 On Hold – Nov ‘26 On Hold– July ‘26
- 60% Sold at $4.78 50% Sold at $11.05 65% Sold at $6.24
- Current Price $4.52 $11.41 $5.80
- 2027 Crop 10% at $5.15 - Dec ‘27 On Hold – Nov ‘27 On Hold– July ‘27
- No Sales Yet 10% Sold at $11.50 25% Sold at $7.15
- Current Price $4.78 $11.24 $6.48
%’s are total of expected yields. Bold Prices are Updated Sales Targets. * price includes trading
December Corn – Daily
November Beans - Daily
Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. No market data or other information is warranted by Reliance Capital Markets II LLC as to completeness or accuracy, express or implied, and is subject to change without notice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC, or their respective subsidiaries, affiliates, officers or employees. Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Strategic Trading Advisors is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets ll LLC.
About Jody Lawrence
Jody Lawrence has been in the commodity brokerage and agriculture marketing business since 1992 and started Strategic Trading Advisors in 1999 and runs it today with his son Brady. The daily market comment his company publishes has over 7000 subscribers in 33 states and 3 countries and provides a concise overview of the world markets with ideas on farm hedging and marketing. Jody also travels the country giving 60-70 marketing meetings a year through his 22-year strategic partnership with Helena Agri-Enterprises.
About Brady Lawrence
Brady Lawrence is an Agriculture Market Specialist and Financial Advisor that focuses on commodities markets, futures and options brokerage, and helping individuals and families plan for retirement and their financial futures. Brady joined Jody at Strategic Trading Advisors in 2018 after college and supports the market research and brokerage sides of the business.