- Corn 1 ½ to 2 ½ lower
- Soybeans 5 ¼ to 6 higher
- Wheat 12 ¼ to 7 ¼ lower
- Basis Flat
- Live Cattle 223 higher (232.38)
- Lean Hogs 125 higher (96.20)
- Dow Jones 149 higher (48,221)
- Crude Oil 1124 lower (83.80)
USDA Report Numbers:
Corn
25/26 US Corn Stocks: 2.127 BBU (2.136 BBU Estimate)
25/26 World Corn Stocks: 292.75 MMT (289.19 MMT Estimate)
25/26 Brazil Corn Prod: 132 MMT (132.07 Estimate)
25/26 Argentina Corn Prod: 52 MMT (52.86 Estimate)
Beans
25/26 US Bean Stocks: 350 MBU (344 MBU Estimate)
25/26 World Bean Stocks: 125.31 MMT (124.74 MMT Estimate)
25/26 Brazil Bean Prod: 180 MMT (179.06 Estimate)
25/26 Argentina Bean Prod: 48 MMT (48.11 Estimate)
Wheat
25/26 US Wheat Stocks: 931 MBU (926 MBU Estimate)
25/26 World Wheat Stocks: 276.96 MMT (277.53 MMT Estimate)
Overview:
The March USDA report is never much of a shocker and todays was not and was swallowed by the developments in Iran. President Trump’s statement that an end is coming soon to the bombing calmed oil prices late yesterday and today but will only matter if the war actually ends with no more oil field infrastructure damage in Iran and a complete and safe re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz. Steps are being taken by the US Department of Energy to curtail our oil exports to make up for the spike in prices.
While today’s USDA report did not make front page news because of the ongoing events in the Middle East, the next USDA report in 3-weeks will be a market mover. The March 31st Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks will give the market plenty of numbers to trade. Hopefully, the Iran war is over, and the markets can get back to just trading the supply and demand news.
Brazil’s harvest of their record bean crop is slower than last year but in-line with averages, while the safrinha corn planting is over 80% complete and a little behind. The sheer size of the bean crop is slowing things a little this year. They have had mostly dry weather for both.
The intra-day news flow has only added to the volatility as this morning the markets were calmer with crude oil lower, then Defense Sec Hegseth announced today would be the most intense bombing of the war, followed by an erroneous report that a US war ship escorted an oil tanker through the Straits. Uncertainty breeds fear which results in volatility and without a consistent news landscape on the events in Iran, the volatility will continue.
It is impossible to say how and when this will end but use rallies to catch up on sales and we will release our initial Sales Targets for 2027 this week.
Sales Targets
Corn
Beans
Wheat
- 2024 Crop Finished Finished Finished
- 100% Sold at $4.46 Avg 100% Sold at $11.13 Avg 100% Sold at $6.20 Avg
- 2025 Crop On Hold - May '26 Finished Finished
- 90% Sold at $4.45 Avg 100% Sold at $10.67 100% Sold at $6.24 Avg
- Current Price $4.54
- 2026 Crop On Hold - Dec ‘26 On Hold– Nov '26 On Hold– July ‘26
- 50% Sold at $4.73 55% Sold at $11.01 50% Sold at $6.13
- Current Price $4.80 $11.54 $6.03
%’s are total of expected yields. Bold Prices are Updated Sales Targets. * price includes trading
Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. No market data or other information is warranted by Reliance Capital Markets II LLC as to completeness or accuracy, express or implied, and is subject to change without notice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Reliance Capital Markets II LLC, or their respective subsidiaries, affiliates, officers or employees. Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Strategic Trading Advisors is a registered DBA of Reliance Capital Markets ll LLC.
About Jody Lawrence
Jody Lawrence has been in the commodity brokerage and agriculture marketing business since 1992 and started Strategic Trading Advisors in 1999 and runs it today with his son Brady. The daily market comment his company publishes has over 7000 subscribers in 33 states and 3 countries and provides a concise overview of the world markets with ideas on farm hedging and marketing. Jody also travels the country giving 60-70 marketing meetings a year through his 22-year strategic partnership with Helena Agri-Enterprises.
About Brady Lawrence
Brady Lawrence is an Agriculture Market Specialist and Financial Advisor that focuses on commodities markets, futures and options brokerage, and helping individuals and families plan for retirement and their financial futures. Brady joined Jody at Strategic Trading Advisors in 2018 after college and supports the market research and brokerage sides of the business.