USDA November Crop Report Overview November 10, 2026

Current Trade:         Corn:   12 to 7 higher         ($4.51 to $4.90)

                                  Beans:  40 to 23 higher      ($12.26 to $12.50)

                                  Wheat: 4 to 6 higher          ($5.95 to $6.17)

First Glance:

Corn         

2026 US Corn Yield: 179.6 BPA (180.3 BPA Estimate)

2026 US Corn Production: 15.893 BBU (15.961 BBU Estimate)

26/27 US Corn Stocks:  1.758 BBU (1.840 BBU Estimate)

26/27 World Corn Stocks:  281.9 MMT (281.44 MMT Estimate)

• The USDA sent a bouquet of flowers and a We Messed Up card to the US farm economy today by cutting corn yield back under 180 which trickled through the balance sheet. The problem with this bullish number is it is almost too little too late after a brutal last 2-months and heavy farmer selling and the revenue insurance average price set in October.

Beans       

2026 US Bean Yield: 53.3 BPA (53.5 BPA Estimate)

2026 US Bean Production: 4.574 BBU (4.597 BBU Estimate)

26/27 US Bean Stocks:  300 MBU (331 MBU Estimate)

26/27 World Bean Stocks:  123.5 MMT (124.73 MMT Estimate) 

• The bean market had been frozen by the fear of a massive 54+ BPA US yield in this report and was fortunately wrong. Although the USDA did raise yield modestly, the amount was negligible. If Chinese trade picks up into year-end as promised, the bean market now has enough world balance sheet tightness that any meaningful SA weather scare will be more dynamic.

Wheat      

26/27 US Wheat Stocks:  743 MBU (746 MBU Estimate)

26/27 World Wheat Stocks:  280.8 MMT (276.44 MMT Estimate) 

• The wheat numbers were largely neutral but a lack of positive news out of the Ukraine/Russia peace talks and the sharp corn rally have found buyers. The peace talks will continue through Wednesday.

Overview:

If you thought being President Trump’s press secretary was a terrible job, how would you like to be in charge of today’s USDA post-report press conference? While this report is price positive across the board, it will take the farmer’s trust of the USDA numbers to a new all-time low. Ideally, the wild swings in yield from September to October and then to November will bring about meaningful reforms in their data collection models and the timing of their reports. Stay tuned. With US corn harvest at 81% and bean harvest at 92%, today should have set a tradable low in both corn and beans for the rest of 2026, with the focus seasonally shifting to December to February SA weather, trade progress with purchases and further negotiations toward the 30 x 30 US/China Trade Compromise, and the potential of year-round E-15 in a lame duck Congress Farm Bill.

For anyone considering rolling your December corn contracts, take today’s rally and seasonal basis strength as a gift and price those bushels and look at re-owning calls. Only roll the corn forward if the math makes sense. Storage and interest costs will eat you up heading into a 3-month stretch where cash is king. This will be today’s only report.