- Corn 2 to 3 lower
- Soybeans 13 to 15 lower
- Wheat 1 to 3 higher
- Basis Flat/Higher
- Live Cattle 90 higher (219.65)
- Lean Hogs 100 lower (77.73)
- Dow Jones 144 lower (51,150)
- Crude Oil 147 higher (91.89)
Markets continue to move lower after Wednesday’s surprisingly bearish corn stocks number with prices for corn, beans and wheat all falling through technical support and the $5 level psychological support level for corn. The extra 175 MBU total is being hotly debated from all directions as the primary adjustment came from the feed number being adjusted from a record high to a near record low with little explanation. Other concerns for this report always surface during an early harvest year as new crop bushels get comingled with old crop stocks to also skew the data. Regardless of the how or why the USDA/NASS made such meaningful adjustments will be debated until the January report, the trade is doing its job to find fair value with the new numbers. With corn and beans now 50 to 60 cents below the contract highs, the collapse seems overdone as US harvest is not going particularly well, wildly inconsistent yields that are well below last year in most areas, further escalation and destruction to Black Sea infrastructure, and flooding affecting S Brazil, it will require patience to allow the current bullish factors to digest the extra corn bushels.
The USDA and NASS have ruined many rallies through the years and yesterday is another example. I do not want their job, but I wish they would do it better and not cause so much volatility every time they release a report. This will be today’s only comment as the report also has put a significant dent in my attitude during my vacation. Patience is all that can be recommended.
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About Jody Lawrence
Jody Lawrence has been in the commodity brokerage and agriculture marketing business since 1992 and started Strategic Trading Advisors in 1999 and runs it today with his son Brady. The daily market comment his company publishes has over 7000 subscribers in 33 states and 3 countries and provides a concise overview of the world markets with ideas on farm hedging and marketing. Jody also travels the country giving 60-70 marketing meetings a year through his 22-year strategic partnership with Helena Agri-Enterprises.
About Brady Lawrence
Brady Lawrence is an Agriculture Market Specialist and Financial Advisor that focuses on commodities markets, futures and options brokerage, and helping individuals and families plan for retirement and their financial futures. Brady joined Jody at Strategic Trading Advisors in 2018 after college and supports the market research and brokerage sides of the business.