Wheat Ignites, Corn Rebounds, and Winter Weather Raises the Stakes

The week ended with solid rallies led by wheat that jumped to double-digit gains on winter kill concerns for the upcoming sub-zero temperatures and lack of Plains snow cover. Corn had a good week regaining some ground after the bearish USDA report while beans found buying on a technical strength. Heading into the last week of January, the major news will be limited, but with year-round E-15 sales pulled from the emergency funding bill, the bio-fuel bulls will need some bullish news when the EPA announces their new RVO mandates.

News and Notes:

• The drier areas of E Argentina and S Brazil are forecast to start receiving regular rains early this week to help offset the recent stress. Texas to Maine is being pummeled this weekend by snow, ice and soon to be followed by arctic cold deep into the south. The shutdown of the ECB will stop corn and bean deliveries this week, which should help basis.
• The daily new crop charts are on Page 2 and took a welcome bullish turn last week with Friday’s strong rally pushing prices to weekly gains with corn clawing back almost half of the post-USDA report losses while wheat and beans are now higher than after the report. The funds hold manageable short positions, but Friday’s closes were just under significant overhead technical resistance, so next week will need a bullish spark to push prices through the moving average resistance.
• Friday’s Cattle on Feed report should be viewed as slightly bearish, but the placements continue to be lower than last year, which will keep any long-term expansion in check. With no imports from Mexico (screwworm), cattle prices should be well supported on breaks.
• Because of last Monday’s holiday, the weekly export report was released on Friday, and all three markets saw strong sales with corn seeing the largest weekly total in nearly 4-years. The current corn export pace is running well ahead of the USDA estimate which should make them increase sales to help reduce stocks in upcoming monthly reports.
• The standing corn and bean Sales Targets are within an average daily range of getting them filled, so please put in your sales orders with your buyers in case we get a surprise.
• Weekly Changes: Corn +5 1/2 (March ‘26), +5 1/2 (Dec ‘26), Beans +10 3/4 (May ‘26), + 13 (Nov ‘26), Wheat + 10 1/2 (July ’26), Crude +135, Diesel +366, Dow -184, US Dollar -1797, Cattle +275, Feeder Cattle +373, Hogs +7, Cotton -85, Milk +21 (15.28).

While Nashville missed the bulk of the heavy snow, we did not miss the ice. Our power has been going in and out so there may be a few off days for the comment this week if another ice-covered tree takes out a powerline. Late January is usually a slow but bearish trending period as Brazil’s bean harvest gets rolling, but last week’s bounce may be able to generate some follow through which would be appreciated and used to move some additional bushels. Opening calls are mixed to slightly lower. Have a great Sunday.